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Luyin Ecology (002887): Performance Forecast Exceeds Expectation, New Orders Increased Significantly in 19 Years

Luyin Ecology (002887): Performance Forecast Exceeds Expectation, New Orders Increased Significantly in 19 Years
Event description The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, reported a merger, and the company achieved operating income in 20197.1.3 billion, an annual increase of 39.59%; net profit attributable to mothers2.09 million yuan, an increase of 37 in 北京养生会所 ten years.15%; net profit after deduction is 1.97 ppm, an increase of 70 in ten years.54%. Event commentary Fourth quarter results have increased.According to the company’s performance forecast, we calculated that the company achieved revenue in the fourth quarter1.97 ppm, an increase of 98 in ten years.64%, an increase of 48 from the previous month.35%; net profit attributable to mother 6333.13 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.94%, the growth rate increases by 78 each year.26 points. The total amount of new orders increased significantly in 2019, and orders may be released after the second quarter of 2020.Since 2019, the company announced 12 new bids, an increase of 140% over the same period in 2018; the total new bids were 41.12 ppm (including pre-bid and consortium), which is 9 in 2018.13 times. The company’s total new orders in January 2020 were 4.430,000 yuan, no supplementary orders announced in February.Affected by the epidemic, the bidding time in 2020 may be reorganized 1-3 months later, and orders in the first quarter may be extended to the second quarter or even later.At present, most of the company’s projects have resumed work. It is expected that the performance of the first quarter will be greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic and the situation will be reduced. The marginal improvement of the financing environment is favorable for the growth of engineering companies in 2020.Nearly 8% of the local government special bonds that have been announced for investment in 2020 will be invested in the field of ecological environment protection. At the same time, some special bonds are allowed to be used as a certain percentage of project capital. Under the circumstances of reliable income and controllable reduction of risks, appropriateDecrease the minimum capital ratio and reduce it by no more than 5 units.On February 17, the medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation of 2000 trillion was gradually launched, and interest rates fell by 10BP from the previous period.On February 20th, the one-year LPR announced by the National Interbank Funding Center dropped by 10bp; the LPR above 5 years dropped by 5bp.The above measures help reduce the financing cost of the real economy, alleviate the excessive cash flow situation of some engineering companies, and help the company to promote the replacement of projects in progress more smoothly. Investment recommendations We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.00\1.09\1.19, corresponding to the company’s closing price of 14 on February 25.72 yuan, PE is 14 in 2019-2021.68\13.51\12.41. Maintain the “overweight” rating. There are risks that the development of the repair business is worse than expected; competition in the garden business is intensifying and diverging; the risk of falling gross profit margin;